M31 Capital × Hudson Bay — Partnership Overview

Who We Are

An investment intelligence firm.

Not a traditional asset manager. Not a hedge fund. Not a venture firm in the conventional sense.

M31 is a research-first organization that turns the work of understanding the frontier into a systematic machine: signal detection, paradigm design, and operator-grade portfolio acceleration. The Bridgewater of private markets.

We invest in world-changing private technology companies, from idea stage to decacorn, by identifying the paradigm shifts that reshape civilization before consensus arrives.

A single investor's intuition does not compound, it ages. Our system compounds because every output of every pillar is documented, scored, and fed back into the next cycle.

Pillar 01

Research

Understand the forces driving technology and identify paradigm shifts before consensus forms.

Pillar 02

Investment

Deploy into paradigm-shift opportunities, seed through follow-on, on one scored standard.

Pillar 03

Labs

Operator-grade support, including hundreds of Bridgewater alumni, that helps companies cross the adoption gap.

The Machine

A systematic machine, end to end.

Our edge is not a single call, it is a system. The same machine runs the full lifecycle: identify technologies before consensus, evaluate and pick companies on one consistent standard, and track performance continuously. PrimeR, our primary-source research engine, maps every claim, source, and expert behind a thesis, and real-time intelligence tracks where each technology sits in its lifecycle.

Identify

Technologies

Signals flag where a paradigm is real and moving, across sectors, before consensus forms.

Evaluate

Companies

Every deal is scored on the same standard, so picks are comparable, repeatable, and defensible.

Track

Performance

Positions and paradigms are monitored continuously, and every outcome feeds the next cycle.

Our Signals · A consistent read on every opportunity

Science Convergence Pattern Suppression Antifragility Opportunity Momentum

Each opportunity is scored across the full set of signals, the same way every time, so a read on whether a technology is real and whether it will last is consistent and comparable. The signals are a shared, evidence-based language for the whole network, even where each firm brings its own judgment on which companies to back.

M31 Paradigm Intelligence dashboard — Identify and track: real-time paradigm intelligence

M31 deal evaluation tool — Evaluate and pick: a full IC memo from an uploaded deck

Where We Are Looking Now

Thesis areas across the frontier.

The same machine works across domains. These are areas in deployment today, and the set keeps expanding as new paradigms surface.

01

Bitcoin & Blockchain

The monetary paradigm shift we have backed since the earliest funds.

02

AI & Frontier Compute

Intelligence and the infrastructure it runs on, from models to decentralized rails.

03

Defense & National Security

As great-power competition intensifies, the highest-leverage opportunities of the decade.

04

Robotics & Embodied AI

The embodiment of AI in the physical world, positioned before consensus forms.

05

Frontier Medical Tech

Longevity, neurotech, and paradigm-breaking therapeutics the establishment has been slow to accept.

06

Frontier Science & Energy

New physics and energy, watched for the early signals of a category-resetting unlock.

The Goal

A front-row seat to the frontier.

Hudson Bay wants to back a small set of early-stage frontier firms, M31, deep33, and Bison, to earn pro-rata and follow-on rights and to sit close to where the technology is moving first. They also want to use their expert knowledge and connections to help drive technical innovation. We want to partner with Hudson Bay to get there. Below we outline the ways M31 can help, from investing capital to supporting the broader initiative.

01 · Investing Capital

How we invest, and what you get at each level.

The simplest way to partner is a private SMA at standard terms. This allows us flexibility to invest right away instead of waiting for a fund close and allows us to invest across different technologies in a completely custom way for you. This will include follow-on and co-invest rights when available, M31 research publications, and access to PrimeR’s intelligence. As Hudson Bay commits more, the fee falls and the M31 relationship deepens.

$25M

Fees2 / 20

A tailored, hands-on relationship with the M31 team
Our research and intelligence as it is produced, plus a quarterly intelligence meeting and data repository for our deals

$50M

Fees2 / 20

A dedicated relationship manager
Research reports before they are published
Our weekly and monthly intelligence reports on the newest tech trends and scientific discoveries

Preferential terms to roll into the HoldCo

$100M

Fees1 / 10

Dedicated analysts and custom research reports
Co-created articles and publications
Quarterly discovery sessions with top scientists at the frontier
In-person intelligence briefings and custom insights tailored to Hudson Bay

Preferential terms to roll into the HoldCo

Looking Ahead · The HoldCo

Where this is heading: the HoldCo.

Separate from the SMA, M31 is building toward a holding company: a vehicle built for investment flexibility, a long-term focus, and a small number of value-add partners. It will hold M31’s go-forward investments, ventures, and PrimeR.

Commitments of $50M and above carry preferential terms to roll the SMA into the HoldCo once it is established. This is a separate conversation we would love to continue as the HoldCo comes together.

02 · Supporting the Broader Initiative

Two ways to go further.

Beyond investing, M31 can take a true partner role in Hudson Bay’s broader initiative.

Offering 01

Synthesis and coordination

Managing across three VCs is hard. We use our technology to pull everything together into one view Hudson Bay can actually use.

$1M a year

What it includes

A custom DDQ, built by M31 for Hudson Bay
Scoring of every deal across all the VCs against that standard
Centralization of the data across the group into one intelligence asset
Consolidated reporting across the group
Sourcing and vetting new managers and deals to bring in

Offering 02

Strategic stake in PrimeR

PrimeR is the data and research platform M31 runs, designed for us by Joe. Hudson Bay can come in as a strategic investor in the platform itself, with Joe continuing to guide its development.

$5M for 10%

What you get

Upside in the platform Hudson Bay wants to build anyway
A board seat for Joe, who keeps guiding development
Free licensing of PrimeR
Custom research reports on the topics that matter to Hudson Bay